SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci said on Aug. 18 that Bitcoin’s latest bear market may contain one encouraging signal: its decline has remained smaller than losses recorded during previous cycles.

Speaking with CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium, Scaramucci called the downturn a “clear Bitcoin bear market.” However, he argued in the interview that the depth of the selloff could indicate a more resilient buyer base.

Scaramucci referred to a roughly 55% peak-to-trough decline. Bitcoin has since recovered to around $64,000, narrowing its current drawdown from the October 2025 record to approximately 49%.

Bitcoin’s current drawdown is smaller than earlier crashes

Bitcoin reached a record near $126,000 in October 2025. It later fell below $60,000 during the June 2026 liquidation wave, representing a decline of approximately 53% to 55%, depending on the exchange and intraday price used.

Scaramucci compared that move with losses of roughly 75% to 80% during previous Bitcoin bear markets. He argued that the smaller decline could mean “there’s a lot of net buyers” preparing for the next market phase.

That interpretation remains his opinion rather than a confirmed market signal. A smaller drawdown does not establish that Bitcoin has reached its final bottom or that buyers will prevent another decline.

Bitcoin’s current price near $64,000 leaves it approximately 49% below its record, according to current drawdown data. The difference between that reading and Scaramucci’s 55% figure reflects Bitcoin’s recovery from its sub-$60,000 lows.

As crypto.news reported, Bitcoin recently reclaimed the $64,000 level after buyers defended support around $62,750. Compressed volatility and leverage still leave the market exposed to abrupt movements.

Scaramucci says AI absorbed cryptocurrency capital

Scaramucci attributed Bitcoin’s subdued performance partly to capital moving toward artificial intelligence investments. AI-linked equities and investment products attracted strong demand while cryptocurrency markets faced liquidations and weaker institutional flows.

He also pointed to Bitcoin miners redirecting infrastructure toward AI computing. Several publicly traded miners have pursued data-center and high-performance computing contracts as Bitcoin mining economics weakened.

BlackRock reached a similar conclusion about competition for investment flows. The asset manager reported that AI-focused funds received more than $46 billion following Bitcoin’s October peak, while spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products recorded approximately $5 billion in net outflows.

As previously reported, BlackRock said the 50% pullback reflected deleveraging and weaker flows rather than a change in its longer-term investment case. BlackRock’s assessment and Scaramucci’s comments remain institutional views, not guarantees of recovery.

The four-year cycle remains central to his forecast

Scaramucci also linked the bear market to Bitcoin’s four-year issuance cycle. Bitcoin completed its latest halving in April 2024, reducing the block subsidy from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

The next halving is expected in 2028, although the precise date depends on block production. Scaramucci estimated that the event was approximately 18 or 19 months away when he spoke.

He said another reduction in newly issued Bitcoin could tighten supply and support prices. Based on that view, he expects Bitcoin to “move back up over 100,000,” though he warned that the market could continue grinding sideways beforehand.

The forecast has no stated deadline. Halvings reduce new issuance, but prices also depend on investor demand, leverage, interest rates, exchange-traded product flows and broader economic conditions.

Historical signals do not promise a quick recovery

VanEck’s latest cycle research provides a more cautious near-term view. Eight of its 12 Bitcoin capitulation signals were active on Aug. 12, while every tracked signal had entered capitulation territory during the preceding three months.

As crypto.news reported in its coverage of the potential accumulation phase, VanEck estimated that a cycle transition could occur between September and November.

However, its historical tests found that similar capitulation clusters did not outperform Bitcoin’s normal baseline over the following three or six months. Outperformance appeared only over a one-year period, based on a small and heavily overlapping sample.

Bitcoin’s next test remains whether buyers can establish support above the $64,000 to $65,000 region. U.S. spot exchange-traded product flows, leverage and upcoming economic data may shape the shorter-term direction.

Scaramucci’s argument therefore rests on relative resilience rather than evidence that the bear market has ended. The current decline has been shallower than earlier collapses, but Bitcoin remains almost 50% below its record.

Sources>> https://crypto.news/bitcoin-drop-may-signal-demand-scaramucci-says/